WTC Final Scenarios: South Africa’s gain in SA vs SL 1st Test, India’s loss?

South Africa have done themselves a huge favour. They have not only gained an early 1-0 lead in their two-game Test series against Sri Lanka but have even staked their claim to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final 2025. The ultimate “test” final will be played at the Lord’s Cricket Ground on 11 June 2025. Incredibly, no team has guaranteed their place in the final, but the Temba Bavuma-led side is slowly getting up the table. Following their win over SL in Durban, the Proteas have jumped from fifth to second on the WTC 2023-25 table.

WTC Final race: Advantage South Africa

South Africa have displaced Australia, Sri Lanka and even New Zealand to have 59.26 percentage points after 9 games. It is so incredible that earlier this year, South Africa compromised their Test series against the Kiwis to smoothly host the SA20 2024. But that is a different matter. As for the WTC Final spot, South Africa’s path is not that difficult. They have three Test matches remaining, all at home. Sri Lanka will have their second chance in Gqeberha (Dec 5-9). Following that, South Africa will host an all-format series against Pakistan that would include two Tests (from December 26 to January 7).

Keeping in mind how difficult it is to play on South African pitches, we can expect Bavuma’s men to create history and win all three of these matches. In doing so, this would take their point percentage to 69.44%, which only Australia would be able to cross by the end of the cycle. On the other hand, if they end up with even one draw and three wins, it would build their winning percentage up to 63.89%, and a loss with three wins would leave them at 61.11%, which could positively be crossed by New Zealand and two out of Australia, India, and Sri Lanka.

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What about Rohit Sharma’s India?

India once again reclaimed the top spot of the World Test Championship Standings (WTC). India had previously dropped to the second spot after suffering a humiliating 3-0 loss to New Zealand at home. But now normalcy has resumed after India etched a historic win in Perth by beating Australia for 295 runs. In the WTC Standings, India surpassed Australia to take the top spot. However, Rohit Sharma and his team cannot afford to take it easy because the work is far from finished. India had to win the series by a commanding 4-0 score in order to qualify automatically for the Border Gavaskar Trophy.

Given that there will be five Test matches—all against Australia—this is a tall ask. However, India has started down the path to automatic promotion. The dynamics don’t change. India should win the series 4-0 or 5-0 to guarantee their spot in the WTC Finals. A score of 4-1 or 3-0 won’t qualify. There can be no more than four victories and a tie. India won’t automatically qualify if there are other results outside these two difficult situations. Is India thus ineligible to compete in the WTC Finals? India would be allowed to play, of course, but they would have to rely mostly on other teams’ outcomes to work in their favour.

WTC Table after South Africa’s win vs SL in 1st Test in Durban

Teams and chances to qualify for WTC Final (After SA vs SL 1st Test)