Sir Keir Starmer’s speech on Thursday mentioned the word “milestone” eight times and “missions” 13 times. There were also three “promises” and a “pledge”.
This all added up to one big thing: the prime minister attempting to turn the tide after a difficult start in government, by setting targets it must reach by the end of this parliament.
The “plan for change” speech focused on six well-trailed themes.
1) Higher living standards
Starmer pledged “higher living standards in every region of the country. So working people have more money in their pocket … the burden of the cost-of-living crisis … no longer intruding on the joy of family life.”
Analysis: Critics of Labour’s first budget would argue that this aim has been made more difficult by the measures it announced, among them increases to employers’ national insurance contributions. The Confederation of British Industry has since warned that “expectations for growth have taken a decisive turn for the worse” and that the budget will make it more difficult for firms to hire new staff. The Resolution Foundation described the targets as “the bare minimum for any functioning government”.
2) Building 1.5m homes in England
Starmer pledged to fast-track planning decisions on at least 150 major economic infrastructure projects, saying: “Clearly if we don’t turbocharge housebuilding with reform we won’t meet that milestone. And if that level of candour surprises you … then honestly – it shouldn’t. After all – what is the point of setting a target that you can deliver without bold action?”
Analysis: This might be the most difficult challenge of them all. It was set out in Labour’s manifesto and in July, the economist Hugo Bessis explained how difficult this issue has become for all administrations. “The track record of previous governments suggests that building enough – not just more – new homes is a nearly impossible challenge due to a variety of economic, planning, and social barriers,” he said. Last year, housebuilding fell by more than 5%, the lowest level for eight years.
3) Ninety-two per cent of patients in England waiting no longer than 18 weeks for elective treatment
Starmer said the NHS, “perhaps more than any institution … represents the bigger ‘us’. And yet here we are … the NHS – even the NHS … losing the trust of the British public … broken … but not beyond repair.”
Analysis: This was another manifesto pledge. At the moment fewer than 60% of operations or other procedures occurred within an 18-week period. Siva Anandaciva, an expert with the health and social care charity The King’s Fund, said a review of the NHS by Lord Darzi, commissioned by Labour, seemed to be tempering expectations regarding waiting lists, yet the government “has doubled down and promised to go hell for leather on meeting all targets”. Starmer has chosen a “reform or die” strategy, attempting to reach a target by the end of the parliament that hasn’t been done for a decade.
4) Putting police back on the beat with a named officer for every community and 13,000 additional officers, PCSOs and special constables
Starmer promised more police on the beat and stamping out anti-social behaviour in every community because, he said, “nobody should feel insecure on the streets they call home”.
Analysis: In terms of achievability, this is one the easier ones. The Tories said Labour had cooked the figures, claiming that “fewer than a third of Labour’s 13,000 neighbourhood police are actually new police officers”.
Yet there is another concern, raised by Richard Atkinson, the president of the Law Society of England and Wales. He warned that the focus on crime and justice was welcome, but that investment was needed across the board.
“It will be essential that the increased funding for more police officers is matched by investment in legal aid, the Crown Prosecution Service and courts. More police on the streets means more arrests and a huge knock-on effect on the rest of the system.”
5) Getting a record 75% of five-year-olds in England ready to learn when they start school
Starmer said one in three children are “not ready for school at the age of five.” He said there were pupils in reception “who aren’t starting to read … they’re struggling to speak.” Labour’s aim is to get an additional 40,000 to 45,000 children a year hitting developmental goals.
Analysis: According to Schools Week, this year 67.7% of children were judged to have a “good” level of development across areas like language, personal development, maths and literacy. Nick Harrison, the chief executive of the Sutton Trust, said the 75% target was “absolutely the right ambition … but it will be a momentous task to achieve this if the status quo remains in early education for the most disadvantaged children.
“The gap between children eligible for free school meals and their peers in meeting these learning goals has been widening since 2017 and there is no sign of this trend reversing.”
6) Energy security, protecting bill-payers and climate security
In the speech the prime minister promised “clean power by 2030 … homegrown British energy … making our country more secure … so never again can a tyrant like Putin attack the living standards of working people”.
Analysis: Labour talks about making the UK a clean energy superpower, yet this will cost money. Cash will be required for renewable energy infrastructure and for carbon capture and storage – itself a controversial area. Alice Delahunty, the president of UK electricity transmission at National Grid, told the FT in October that the target to decarbonise the electricity system by 2030 was “incredibly stretching” and would be achieved only with big policy reforms. “If it went perfectly along current regimes, it wouldn’t get there. So, it needs to go perfectly along reformed regimes.”
