THE replacement of slain Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar by his brother could dash hopes of any rapid peace deal in Gaza , experts warned last night.
It comes as a further 32 people were killed in Gaza by Israeli airstrikes, as Israel attempts to maximise the Hamas leadership vacuum ahead of next month’s US elections.
The killing of Yahya Sinwar in Rafah was branded “more significant” than the attack which killed former al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who was no longer active in the organisation.
The warlord was found in the bombed-out remains of a building in Tel al-Sultan on Wednesday morning, Drone footage pictured him heavily injured on a sofa. He was shot in the head by an Israeli rifleman before the building was shelled.
“Sinwar was the biggest obstacle to ending the war,” said Shalom ben Chanan, who led a division of the Shin Bet security service that specialises in hunting terrorists.
“The way he died, accompanied by only two Hamas senior operatives including a battalion commander, will also have a demoralising effect.
“Those few leaders who survive will want to continue to survive. This elimination may convince them to put their weapons down.”
But the prospect of Mohammed Sinwar’s succession may temper celebrations, experts warn.
The 49-year-old is thought to have played a hand in planning the October 7 attacks on Israel.
“Yayha SInwar personalised power and his legacy is much more transferable to his brother, who is an experienced military leader,” said regional expert Megan Sutcliffe from the Sibylline strategic risk group.
“His succession would certainly moderate the type of ‘all change’ message so many hope for.”
In typical dynastic fashion, Yayha Sinwar had another influential brother. Dr. Zakaria Ibrahim Sinwar is a lecturer at the Islamic University of Gaza and author of such tomes as “The View of the Revisionist Zionists towards Arabs and Muslims (1925-1948)”.
But Mohammad Sinwar will not be given a coronation.
The terror group is so fragmented that challengers have been emboldened to bid for leadership of Hamas’ hardened Qassem Brigades.
One name to come to the fore is Az al-Din Haddad, commander of the Gaza City division who is dubbed the “Queen of Clubs” in Israel’s hit list.
The presence of challengers in an organisation where Sinwar had eliminated all rivals shows the extent to which Hamas is no longer the force it was on October 7 past year.
“The fact that there is even a whisper of competition shows there is a big problem for Hamas,‘ said Megan Sutcliffe..
“We may see a group that is more factionalised. On the plus side, this may make it easier for Israel to attack it piecemeal
”On the minus side it will make negotiating for the 97 hostages still unaccounted for more difficult, as they are distributed among the different groups.
“And Israel will not be credibly able to claim victory when they have secured the release of all hostages.”
It leaves Israel making the most of the next two weeks to carve out de facto buffer zones in a bid to create an irreversible reality before US Presidential elections, where areas victory might force its hand into settlement.
Before considering any ceasefire agreements, Israel is accelerating its military campaign to push Hezbollah away from its northern border while thrusting into Gaza’s densely packed Jabalia refugee camp in what Palestinians and U.N. agencies fear could be an attempt to seal off northern Gaza from the rest of the enclave.
It is also planning a response to a ballistic-missile barrage carried out by Iran on Oct. 1, its second direct attack on Israel in six months.
Yesterday military strikes killed at least 32 people as IDF forces tightened a siege around hospitals in Jabalia.
In the central Gaza Strip camp of Al-Maghzai, an Israeli strike on a house killed 11 people, while another strike at the nearby camp of Nuseirat killed four others.
Five other people were killed in two separate strikes in the south Gaza cities of Khan Younis and Rafah, medics said, while seven Palestinians were killed in the Shati camp in the northern Gaza Strip.
“There is a new landscape, a new geopolitical change in the region,” said David Schenker, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs who is now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute think tank.
Before Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel was “willing to tolerate a high-level threat”, responding to rocket fire from the Palestinian militant group and other foes with limited strikes.
“No longer”, said Schenker.
“This time Israel is fighting on many fronts. It’s Hamas; it’s Hezbollah, and Iran is coming soon.”
Paul Cainer is founder of the International Conflict Journalism Centre.
