This year, China’s flag was seen waving on the Moon in transmitted images. It marks their fourth lunar landing and the first mission to collect samples from the far side. In the last year, India and Japan have also touched down on the lunar surface. February saw US company Intuitive Machines become the first private entity to land on the Moon, with more set to follow.
NASA aims to return humans to the Moon, with Artemis astronauts targeting a 2026 landing. China plans to send people by 2030. Unlike past brief visits, the goal now is to establish lasting outposts.
However, in this era of renewed global rivalry, this space race might export Earth’s tensions to the lunar landscape.
“Our Moon relationship is about to change dramatically,” cautions Justin Holcomb, a University of Kansas geologist. He notes that space exploration is now “moving faster than our laws.”
A 1967 UN agreement states no country can claim the Moon. The aptly named Outer Space Treaty declares it belongs to all, and any exploration must benefit humanity and serve all nations’ interests.
While this sounds cooperative – and it is – the Outer Space Treaty was born from Cold War politics, not collaboration.
As US-Soviet tensions rose after World War II, fears grew that space could become a military battleground. The treaty’s key point was banning nuclear weapons in space. Over 100 countries signed on.
But today’s space age looks different from the past.
A major shift is that modern Moon missions aren’t just national projects – companies are now in the race.
In January, a US commercial mission called Peregrine planned to take human ashes, DNA samples, and a branded sports drink to the Moon. A fuel leak derailed the mission, but it sparked debate about how this diverse cargo aligned with the treaty’s principle of benefiting all humanity.
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The Moon’s allure is growing, but concerns are rising about its exploitation. “We’re sending things up there without much thought,” notes Michelle Hanlon, a space law expert and founder of For All Moonkind, an group aiming to protect Apollo landing sites. “Our Moon is now within reach, and we’re starting to misuse it,” she warns.
Despite the rise in private lunar ventures, nations remain the key players. Sa’id Mosteshar, who heads the London Institute of Space Policy and Law, points out that companies need state approval for space missions, which are bound by international agreements.
Landing on the Moon still brings prestige. India and Japan’s successful missions have cemented their status as global space contenders.
A thriving space industry can significantly boost a nation’s economy through job creation and innovation.
However, the Moon race offers an even bigger prize: its resources.
While the Moon seems bare, it’s rich in minerals, including rare earths, iron, titanium, and helium – used in various applications from superconductors to medical devices. The value of these resources varies widely in estimates, from billions to quadrillions. It’s clear why some see the Moon as a potential goldmine. Yet, it’s crucial to remember this would be a long-term investment, and the technology for extracting and transporting lunar resources is still in development.
A 1979 international treaty declared that no state or organization could claim ownership of lunar resources. However, it wasn’t widely accepted – only 17 countries signed it, none of which have been to the Moon, including the US. In fact, the US passed a law in 2015 allowing its citizens and industries to extract, use, and sell space materials. “This caused a stir in the international community,” Hanlon explains. “But gradually, others followed with similar national laws.” Luxembourg, the UAE, Japan, and India have since introduced comparable legislation.
Surprisingly, water could be the most sought-after resource. “Initially, Moon rocks from Apollo missions were thought to be completely dry,” says Sara Russell, a planetary sciences professor at the Natural History Museum. “But about a decade ago, we discovered they contain traces of water trapped in phosphate crystals.” She adds that even more water ice exists at the Moon’s poles, frozen in permanently shadowed craters.
Future explorers might utilize lunar water for various purposes: quenching thirst, producing oxygen, and even crafting rocket fuel. By splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen, astronauts could potentially journey from the Moon to Mars and beyond.
The United States is currently working to establish new guidelines for lunar exploration and resource utilization. The Artemis Accords propose that extracting and using Moon resources should align with the Outer Space Treaty, while acknowledging that some new regulations may be necessary.
Over 40 nations have endorsed these non-binding agreements, but China’s absence is notable. Some argue that new lunar exploration rules should not be spearheaded by a single country.
“This matter should be addressed through the United Nations, as it affects all nations,” Sa’id Mosteshar explains to me.
Resource access could also lead to conflicts. While the Moon offers ample space, areas near ice-filled craters are prime locations. What happens if multiple countries desire the same spot for their future bases? And once a nation establishes a base, what prevents another from setting up too close?
“An interesting parallel can be drawn with Antarctica,” suggests Jill Stuart, a space policy and law expert at the London School of Economics. “We’ll likely see research stations on the Moon similar to those on that continent.”
However, specific decisions about a new lunar base, such as its size, may depend on who arrives first.
“There will certainly be a first-mover advantage,” Stuart notes. “If you can establish a presence first, you can determine your exclusion zone’s size. It doesn’t grant ownership, but it allows you to occupy that space.”
Currently, the US or China are the most likely initial settlers, adding a new dimension to their already tense relationship. The standards set by the first arrivals may become the enduring rules over time.
If this seems somewhat improvised, some space experts I’ve consulted believe we’re unlikely to see another major international space treaty. The guidelines for lunar exploration are more likely to evolve through memorandums of understanding or new codes of conduct.
The stakes are high. The Moon, our constant companion, waxes and wanes through its phases, illuminating our night sky. As this new space race unfolds, we must consider what kind of place we want it to be – and whether it risks becoming a stage for very terrestrial rivalries.
The Moon’s significance extends beyond its celestial beauty. It influences Earth’s tides, stabilizes our planet’s axis, and has long captivated human imagination. As we venture back to its surface, we must balance our ambitions with responsible stewardship.
International cooperation will be crucial in navigating the challenges ahead. While competition can drive innovation, collaboration can ensure equitable access and sustainable practices. The Moon’s vast potential should benefit all of humanity, not just a select few nations or corporations.
As we look to the future, we must also consider the ethical implications of lunar exploration and exploitation. How do we balance scientific discovery with preservation? What are our responsibilities to future generations who may inherit our lunar legacy?
The answers to these questions will shape not only our relationship with the Moon but also our approach to space exploration as a whole. As we reach for the stars, we must remember that our actions on the Moon will set precedents for our ventures further into the cosmos.
