PSG’s expected struggle, Aston Villa favourable run: Has Champions League format created an unfair playing field?

We’ve reached the midway point of the first installation of the new league phase in the Champions League. So what have we learned about the new format?

UEFA tore up the rulebook at the start of this season, ditching the traditional eight groups of four in the group stage with a new ‘Swiss-style’ 36-team league format.

The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the last 16, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off against each other to join the top eight teams in that round of the competition.

Several voices within Sky Sports debated the topic of whether the new format is working ahead of matchweek three – but one aspect which is now becoming more intriguing is the extent to which the current league standings is reflective of the difficulty ranking of fixtures for each of the 36 teams involved.

Many onlookers have already been sold, advocating the notion of not playing the same team twice, and pointing to the surprise results – namely Sporting’s win over Manchester City, Lille’s victory over champions Real Madrid and Aston Villa’s triumph over Bayern Munich – as evidence in favour of the new format.

Fixture difficulty rank explained

Paris Saint-Germain have the hardest Champions League fixtures in Pot 1 based on the average UEFA coefficient of the teams they drew.

Average coefficient: 69.625 across the eight games.

Teams drawn: Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, and Arsenal.

The coefficient rankings are based on points gained by clubs in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League over the past five seasons:

Points: Two points for a win, one point for a draw, and points are halved in the qualifying rounds.

Bonus points: Five bonus points for making the last 16 of the Champions League, and one more point for each further round.

It has led to a scenario where Madrid – beaten at home by AC Milan last time out – face increasing jeopardy over their participation in the knockout rounds, especially if they were to be on the end of a bad result again away to Liverpool this week.

Madrid were in fact handed the easiest draw among the Pot One clubs, with an average coefficient of 56.000.

But that puts even more scrutiny on comparing just how difficult one team might have it compared to another side, who might even have been in Pot Four and not participated in a previous Champions League. So, looking back to September, who got a touch when the draw was made?

Well, based on the average five-year coefficient, Feyenoord were handed the stiffest set of eight games to negotiate. The Dutch club – who finished second in last season’s Eredivisie – didn’t get off to the best of starts, losing 4-0 at home to Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen.

Faced with an uphill struggle to even gain qualification for a play-off spot, Feyenoord have rallied to earn victories away at Girona and Benfica, before their progress was derailed by a disappointing 3-1 home defeat by RB Salzburg.

It means their hopes are in the balance, with trips to Manchester City and Lille booking ending home encounters with Sparta Prague and Bayern Munich.

Of the top 10 teams to statistically have the toughest set of fixtures, only Inter Milan currently sit inside the top eight. Five of them are currently in the elimination spots between 25th and 36th.

Conversely, if we look at the teams with – on paper – the kindest schedules, what is noticeable is that No 1 ranked Young Boys have lost all four of their games so far – but they still have away trips to Stuttgart and Celtic sandwiched in between home ties with Atalanta and Red Star.

In the previous format, losing your first four games would almost certainly mean elimination, but the Swiss side could still conceivably finish inside the top 24 teams based on having the extra games against relatively modest opposition.

The same can be said for current Austrian champions Sturm Graz, positioned one place above them but also on zero points from four games. Is this what the new format intended to create? More games that matter?

There are other teams who have wasted no time in taking advantage of favourable fixtures. Aston Villa won their opening three games before falling to a disappointing 1-0 defeat at Club Brugge last time out.

But victories over Young Boys, a weakened Bayern Munich and Bologna have put Unai Emery’s side in a strong position to reach the play-offs at the very least.

Of the 10 teams to have the statistically easiest run of fixtures, three sides currently sit inside the coveted top eight spots – Villa, Monaco and Borussia Dortmund.

Atalanta are unbeaten and hover just outside it, while Celtic and Arsenal have both won two of their four games. In Celtic’s case, the Scottish champions have won twice as many games as in their last two group stage appearances combined.

Brendan Rodgers’ side will be confident of earning a play-off spot given their kind run of games – with a home tie with Club Brugge and a trip to Dinamo Zagreb next – and that’s despite a 7-1 trouncing in Dortmund. Hosting Young Boys after the Christmas break almost feels like an unnecessary safety net.

The more Champions League football played this season, the more we learn about whether the new format will in time be viewed as a success.

Talk of the unknown in these opening rounds has always been prefaced with a longing for a frenetic final set of games all played at the same time. Football’s very own NFL RedZone.

But the sceptics will always point towards the early lack of jeopardy, where weakened sides have tarnished supposed blue ribbon events. Liverpool’s blistering start has made the visit of Real Madrid this week by far the least important of their priorities.

No one at Arsenal – having lost title ground in the Premier League – talks now of the time they beat Paris Saint-Germain, whose struggles were expected based on having the fourth toughest set of fixtures – despite reaching last season’s semi-finals. The Ligue 1 champions have been faced with an average coefficient across eight games of 69.625.

The dream of lifting the Champions League trophy has never felt so far from becoming a reality under their Qatari owners, largely based on how they have performed, but partly as a result of who they have played and because three of their remaining four games are away from home.

Does it matter where you finish in the qualification spots?

Another discussion that will soon emerge is whether it matters if a team finishes first or eighth in the automatic qualification spots.

Similarly, if finishing ninth is any different to finishing in 24th. The answer is ‘yes’.

To try to ensure every game matters through to the final day, UEFA has connected a club’s final league placing to the knockout bracket, meaning where a club finishes affects their path.

The higher you are placed, the easier the route (based on league ranking) through to the final. For instance, clubs ranked 1-8 will play the second leg of their last-16 tie at home.

If a team finishes in ninth position, the disappointment of narrowly missing out automatically advancing to the last 16 could be softened by being drawn to face the team that finished in 23rd or 24th position.

Likewise, teams who finish in first and second cannot play each other until the final; those who are third and fourth would avoid first and second until the semi-finals.

At this stage, teams will solely be focused on collecting as many points as possible but given how everything is inter-linked, there could come a point where managers start to plot the best path to the final.

For now, those permutations are for another day, but the opening four rounds of fixtures have certainly raised questions over whether the new format has created an unfair playing field.

How many points are needed to qualify for the knockout rounds?

A new format brings new expectations in the Champions League this season, with clubs looking at the mathematics to see how many points they would need to qualify for the knockout rounds in the league phase structure.

The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points from a possible 24 – so five wins and a draw from eight matches, or other combinations – would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which guarantees you a last-16 spot in the New Year.

The data also believes 15 points – so five wins from eight games, or other combinations – could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that points tally being enough in 73 per cent of Opta’s 50,000 simulations of the league phase.

Fourteen points, so four wins and two draws or other combinations, is unlikely to be enough for a top-eight finish – so the race to five wins is likely to be the target for the biggest sides.

To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot at least, Opta believes 10 points – so three wins and a draw, or other combinations – will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.

It means teams who win in the opening round of Champions League fixtures need just seven points from the remaining seven games to guarantee themselves a play-off spot.

Nine points – so three wins from eight games, or other combinations – could be enough to finish 24th, with that points tally being enough in 69 per cent of the simulations.

But just eight points – so two wins and two draws, or other combinations – runs the risk of elimination, with that points tally being sufficient in just 16 per cent of the simulations.

Teams will be targeting at least three wins from eight to give them the best possible chance of reaching the Champions League knockout rounds.