The heatwave toasting eastern Australia will peak on Wednesday as temperatures again climb towards 40C in parts of Sydney, keeping energy authorities on edge.
By mid-morning, suburbs in Sydney’s south and west were the hottest points in Australia with Penrith exceeding 35C on the way to a forecast top of 39C. The site has now clocked five days in a row above 35C.
Sydney’s CBD is also predicted by the Bureau of Meteorology to be the hottest capital for the day, with a top of 34C forecast – or the warmest since the end of February.
Regions expecting low to high 30s today also include the Hunter and Illawarra districts to Sydney’s north and south, respectively.
“Severe heatwave conditions are expected to peak on Wednesday, then ease by the weekend,” the bureau said in a warning alert. “Locations likely to be impacted include Batemans Bay, Camden, Campbelltown, Hornsby, Liverpool, Nowra, Penrith, Parramatta, Richmond and Wollongong.”
In line with recent days, the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) has been issuing alerts calling for more generation from electricity suppliers to ensure power is not interrupted.
On Wednesday morning, Aemo said a so-called level 3 lack of reserve (LOR3) condition was possible later in the day as solar output decreased towards sunset. By 4.30pm AEDT the market was likely to require 84 megawatts of additional supply to avoid interrupted load – or blackouts.
LOR3 forecasts have been relatively rare for New South Wales until the past week, when the operator has issued a cluster of them only to cancel as generators responded.
About 6 gigawatts of coal-fired power station capacity remains unavailable, including about 3GW that was not previously scheduled. Many of Australia’s coal plants are nearing the end of their design lives, requiring more frequent and more costly repairs to keep operating.
Aemo has also issue LOR2 level alerts for NSW for Wednesday afternoon and for periods on Thursday and Friday as the heatwave slowly ebbs. Such alerts are calls for generators to provide extra capacity as a backup in case committed plants don’t operate as expected and drop off without warning.
As of mid-morning, Aemo was looking for about 750-800MW more power to be in reserve for periods stretching from 3pm to 8pm. Wholesale power prices may also spike to their ceiling of $17,500/megawatt-hour later on Wednesday, Aemo data indicates.
The weather setup, meanwhile, will favour thunderstorm activity over parts of eastern Australia including the prospect of heavy rainfall as tropical moisture is dragged southwards.
Victoria faces high winds, particularly in the state’s north-east, the bureau said.
The bureau also noted NSW health advice that severe heatwaves “can be dangerous for many people, especially older people, babies, children, pregnant and breastfeeding women, people with medical conditions and people who are unwell”.
“Seek a place to keep cool, such as your home, a library, community centre or shopping centre,” it said, adding residents should draw blinds and curtains and close window early in the day to keep heat out of homes.