Qatar GP: How Mercedes could impact McLaren vs Ferrari F1 title battle in Constructors’ Championship

With Max Verstappen sealing a fourth consecutive F1 title, attention turns to the Constructors’ Championship which could go down to the wire.

McLaren lead Ferrari by 24 points with two events remaining, the Qatar Grand Prix this weekend, which also features a Sprint, and the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on December 6-8.

Red Bull are not out if it, at 53 points behind McLaren, but their lack of pace and Sergio Perez’s struggles mean they will need something special to defend their constructors’ crown.

Mercedes are guaranteed to finish fourth in the standings but their surprise one-two in Las Vegas helped McLaren, as it prevented Ferrari from scoring more points.

If Mercedes are strong again in Qatar, that will have big implications on the title race.

How McLaren can seal championship at Qatar GP

Each team has the potential to claim a maximum of 44 points on a regular race weekend, with 25 points going to the winner, 18 to the driver who finishes second, and an extra point available for the fastest lap of the race.

That is what will be on offer at the season finale in Abu Dhabi, but in Qatar there are 15 more points available for each constructor, with eight points going to the Sprint winner and seven to the second-placed finisher on Saturday.

That means if McLaren leave the Qatar weekend on Sunday with a lead of 45 points, or more, they will win the Constructors’ Championship. Therefore, the Woking-based team would need to outscore Ferrari by 21 points and not be outscored by Red Bull by eight points.

In the event it does get tight and the championship goes down to Abu Dhabi, it is worth remembering that a tie for first or second would be decided on countback of which team has won more races this season. Red Bull are on eight wins, while McLaren and Ferrari have five each.

In the event two teams had the same number of wins, it would then go down to which team had recorded the most second-placed finishes, and so on.

Why is the Constructors’ Championship so important?

It’s not romantic, but the main answer is: money. While the Drivers’ Championship carries more prestige, the Constructors’ Championship is what dictates the distribution of Formula 1’s considerable prize pot.

The pot is 50 per cent of Formula 1’s commercial rights revenue for each season, so the reported profit of $3.2bn (£2.3bn) for 2023 would have resulted in an estimated fund of $1.6bn (£1.2bn).

After some bonuses are taken out of that, such as Ferrari’s five per cent to recognise their contribution to the sport’s global popularity, the remaining amount is split between all 10 teams, with the champions receiving an estimated 14 per cent, and the team that comes last claiming six per cent.

Therefore in 2023, winners Red Bull would have earned an estimated $140m (£106m), with each team below them gradually receiving less.

The difference between each position in 2023 was an estimated £7m, which goes some way to explaining why the battle for midfield and even the final positions are just as fiercely contested as those at the front.

McLaren boss Stella: We have a job to finish

McLaren had their worst weekend since the early stages of the season in terms of pace in Las Vegas, as Lando Norris finished a lonely sixth and Oscar Piastri was seventh.

Ferrari took 12 points out of them thanks to Carlos Sainz’s podium in third and a disgruntled Charles Leclerc in fourth, with the Monegasque driver seemingly unhappy about a lack of team-order compliance and his strategy.

Nevertheless, Ferrari were unable to do anything about Mercedes and were denied a bigger points haul, so McLaren have a nice cushion of 24 points.

“We lost points to Ferrari but our job was to limit the damage, considering we go to two venues which should be more comfortable ground for our car,” McLaren team principal Andrea Stella told Sky Sports F1.

“But when you have a Mercedes performing like this, a Ferrari at this level, Red Bull, it is never comfortable. We know the job is not finished.

“There is hard work ahead of us. We go to the last two races fully focused and we have a job to finish.”

McLaren were always expected to be less competitive in Las Vegas but have high hopes about Qatar due to its high-speed corners.

The quick turns are where McLaren have been rapid this season and the warmer temperatures should also help them, as they did not enjoy the cold weather in Vegas.

“Qatar and Abu Dhabi should be more suitable for the way we designed the car,” said Stella.

“But, at the same time, we need to be careful that the level of the top teams in F1, even in 2024, in my view it is unprecedented.

“I can’t remember a season in F1 where four teams are operating at such a high level, not only that they are in a condition to win, but a condition to dominate like Mercedes did in Las Vegas.

“So we go to Qatar thinking the car may perform well but if we think this is an easy ride, we will be hit by the reality. We go there thinking we need to maximise the potential of the car. If we do that, then certainly from a track layout point of view, the car should spend a lot of time where it’s been designed to perform.

“But I can’t not recognise that I would expect Ferrari, certainly even Red Bull, Mercedes got information from Vegas, to be in a condition to win in Qatar. It’s very interesting, much more than I would like! I always try to get things to be boring but that’s not the case.”

Vasseur looking to take title race to Abu Dhabi

McLaren have not won the Constructors’ Championship since 1998, although they did finish top of the 2007 standings but were disqualified following the ‘Spygate’ case.

Ferrari’s last triumph came in 2008, so they have gone 16 years without any title in F1. These are two of the sport’s most famous teams, both desperate to end the domination of Red Bull and Mercedes from the last decade and a half.

“I would rather be 24 points behind than 200. The championship is still open. We don’t know what will happen in Qatar and Abu Dhabi,” said Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur.

“For sure, on paper, Qatar isn’t the best track for us, but we’ve had tough weekends, we managed to do a good job.

“We will keep focused and do our best to put pressure on McLaren for the last race. This is important because anything can happen in the last Grand Prix. We will push until the last corner of the last lap of the last race.”

While McLaren enjoy the high-speed corners, Ferrari, on paper, do not. There are only a few slow-speed traction zones, which Ferrari are strong at, and they do not have the optimal aerodynamic downforce of McLaren.

Sainz is already expecting Ferrari to be looking at a damage limitation weekend in Qatar.

“We just need to go into that trying to maximise whatever we have. I think over the last few weekends we’ve done a good job,” he said.

“In Qatar, the maximum might be a P5 or a P6 because in that car, with this car in a track like Qatar, I expect to struggle and I expect McLaren and Mercedes to be very strong.

“Probably also even Red Bull, given that they were strong also in qualifying in Austin. I think it’s going to be a very challenging weekend for us. That’s why Vegas was important for us to get the maximum number of points available, and we kind of did that for the pace that we had.”

The Mercedes factor

Nobody thought Mercedes would dominate like they did in Las Vegas but the Silver Arrows switched the tyres on and revelled on the cold track.

Last year in Qatar, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton started second and third behind pole-sitter Verstappen, only to collide at the first corner.

They had strong pace, though, and Russell thinks the smooth track surface will mean Mercedes are also competitive in Qatar and that Vegas was not a one-off.

“When the car is in the right window, it’s on rails,” he told Sky Sports F1. “I think it’s no secret we have been struggling a bit with the ride, so on the bumpy tracks you have to lift the car, go softer with the car and are totally out of our downforce window.

“When we can get the car low and stiff, we are flying. We need to broaden that window. That’s why you are seeing these big fluctuations. We haven’t forgotten how to get the car set up, it’s just we are forced to put it in a window we don’t want it to be.”

Russell revealed he planned to use an old power unit in Vegas to save the mileage on his fresher engine for Qatar, which suggests Mercedes are confident about their chances this weekend.

“I think we’ve got a good shot in Qatar, to be honest. Going into this triple-header, I had my sights set on Qatar,” Russell said.

“Even to the point that I wanted to take my freshest engine out and put an old engine in for Vegas, to save my best engine for Qatar. And I’m kind of glad we didn’t do that now.”

A double podium for McLaren or Ferrari on Sunday would be huge, but if it is Mercedes who have two drivers on the podium, that will only help McLaren.

Hamilton is in a curious position where he could impact his former team McLaren, or his new team Ferrari, depending on his performances.

The seven-time world champion says Mercedes will be “in a good spot” to challenge for the win if the handling of the car is similar to Vegas.

“I don’t think anyone in the team knows why we were as quick as we were in Vegas and everyone will be happy about it,” he said.

“But I think often in the hotter conditions, we struggle more. Maybe Qatar is not so bad because it’s a little bit cooler there and the track is very smooth.

“So maybe we’ll not be too bad at that track. I think we were OK there last year. Abu Dhabi, maybe less so. But we’ll see.”

Sky Sports F1’s live Qatar GP schedule

Thursday November 28
3pm: Drivers’ Press Conference

Friday November 29
9.55am: F1 Academy Practice One
11am: F2 Practice
1pm: Qatar GP Practice One (practice starts at 1.30pm)
2.55pm: F1 Academy Practice Two
4.05pm: F2 Qualifying
5pm: Qatar GP Sprint Qualifying (qualifying starts at 5.30pm)*

Saturday November 30
12.10pm: F1 Academy Qualifying
1pm: Qatar GP Sprint build-up
2pm: QATAR GP SPRINT
3.30pm: Ted’s Sprint Notebook
4pm: F2 Sprint Race
5.15pm: Qatar GP Qualifying build-up
6pm: QATAR GP QUALIFYING
8pm: F1 Academy: Race One
8.45pm: Ted’s Qualifying Notebook

Sunday December 1
10.55am: F1 Academy Race Two
12.15pm: F2 Feature Race
2.30pm: Grand Prix Sunday: Qatar GP build-up
4pm: The QATAR GRAND PRIX
6pm: Chequered Flag: Qatar GP reaction
7pm: Ted’s Notebook

*also live on Sky Sports Main Event

Formula 1’s season-ending triple-header continues this weekend with the Qatar Grand Prix, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream the final two F1 races and more with a NOW Sports Month Member

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