Well over half of the French people would be in favour of the country’s President Emmanuel Macron resigning if the government of Michel Barnier, whom he appointed, falls, a new poll suggests.
Mr Barnier became France’s prime minister in early September, and it was hoped the conservative former chief Brexit negotiator would bring “the most stable conditions possible,” the Elysée Palace said in a statement at the time, following shock surge in support for the hard-right National Rally (RN) in the summer’s elections.
He has since formed a small and fragile coalition government that has partly relied on tacit support from RN.
But Mr Barnier has managed to unite the hard-left and right in opposition to his 2025 budget, as he seeks to use tax hikes and spending cuts to raise 60 billion euros (£50.1 billion) in savings to reduce the deficit to 5 percent of economic output next year.
It comes amid pressure from European Union for Paris to reduce its debt, and get in line with rules that limit deficits to 3 percent of GDP.
Critics of the budget say they oppose public spending cuts which could impact key services, and have rejected changes to the pension system.
Marine Le Pen, MP and a founder of RN, is demanding changes and given Mr Barnier until Monday to accept her demands before deciding whether to seek a vote of confidence in his government.
Given Mr Barnier’s struggles to get a budget approved, with resistance on all sides of the political specturum, speculation has swirled that he may opt to use a controversial constitutional backdoor and invoke article 49.3.
The move would allow the text to bypass a vote and be adopted, but would provoke outrage in Paris. It would also give MPs the option of putting forward a motion of no confidence within 24 hours.
But polling suggests Mr Macron could also be under threat if Mr Barnier is toppled.
The new “Opinion en direct” poll, conducted by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and published on Wednesday, found that if Michel Barnier’s government is forced to resign follow a motion of censure, 63% of French people would support the resignation of Emmanuel Macron as president, triggering a new election.
This included 83% of RN voters and 76% of New Popular Front supporters but also a significant portion of people backing Les Républicains (48%) and even 27% of those of Ensemble pour la République, according to the outlet.
However, the French are divided on whether there should be a motion of censure in the first place, with 52% of respondents in favor and 48% opposed.
The BFMTV poll was a sample of 1,003 people representative of residents of metropolitan France aged 18 and over.
The outlet said it ensured the representativeness of the sample by using the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age and profession of the respondent after stratification by region and category of agglomeration.
It was conducted online from November 26 to 27, 2024.
