Popular Economics Weekly
The Commerce Department reported Retail trade sales were up
0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from September 2024, and up 2.6 percent (±0.5
percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 7.0 percent (±1.4 percent)
from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 4.3 percent
(±2.1 percent) from October 2023
Sales of new cars and trucks jumped 1.6% in October to lead the charge among
retailers. Auto sales account for one-fifth of all retail sales. Restaurant
sales are also booming, so maybe consumers are breathing a great sigh of relief
that the election is over.
So holiday sales are strong even though it will be two weeks before we know
if the 12,000 new payroll jobs is a fluke in the October unemployment report
because of the hurricane damage and 30,000 striking Boeing machinists, which is
now settled.
Even the east coast docks’ strike was settled. Was it because the strikers
wanted to enjoy the upcoming holidays with more money in their pockets? We won’t
know if the September jobs report was a fluke, as I said, until October’s
numbers come out, but Fed Chair Powell is now saying the Fed is not in a hurry
to lower interest rates further if retail sales stay strong, especially with
stronger inflation news.
Both wholesale inflation and retail inflation rates were higher than forecast
in October, which is another sign that consumer spending hasn’t slowed, and will
continue to push up prices.
So, was too high inflation the main reason Republicans won a landslide, as
exit polls have said? Then why do consumers keep shopping, and pushing up prices
even higher, if a majority was so unhappy with their costs?
Maybe there were other, more cultural factors that kept consumers from
realizing how lucky we are to have the fastest growing economy in the western
world with no worries about energy shortages.
I find it hard to believe that most consumers were unhappy with their own
circumstances, since they have spent so much for leisure activities.
Americans continue to signal that travel is splurge-worthy and are again
setting new records for vacation spending in 2024, according to Allianz
Partners USA, a travel insurance company. Americans have more than
doubled their projected summer vacation spending since the inception of the
pandemic. The 2024 figure represents an approximately 3.5% increase over last
year, but a whopping 118% jump compared to 2019.
Maybe consumers want to forget about the results of the presidential race
that has left the country still split in two? But the majority was mad enough to
bring in Donald Trump once again in a big way, after voting him out four years
ago for doing so little.
Harlan Green © 2024
Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen
