Wednesday briefing: Why was the UK so poorly prepared for extreme flooding? | England

Good morning.

Storm Bert brought heavy rain, gale-force winds and snow across the country last weekend, overwhelming flood defences already described as being in disrepair. Parts of south Wales and south-west England, where a month of rain pummelled sodden towns and villages, fared particularly badly.

At least five people died, 350,000 homes in England lost power and more than 500 homes and businesses were flooded. As of 4pm on Tuesday, around 100 flood warnings remained in effect across England and Wales, including one severe warning indicating a danger to life for the River Nene at Billing Aquadrome in Northamptonshire. The Met Office issued yellow warnings for southern parts of the UK that will last until midday, as a newly named storm, Conall, is bringing more rain. Conall, the third named storm of the season, is still developing as it passes through England – the worst of it will hit the Netherlands in the coming days.

The extreme weather has prompted renewed scrutiny of the country’s preparedness for climate-related weather events. A report by the cross-parliamentary Public Accounts Committee earlier this year had highlighted insufficient maintenance of flood defences and concluded that the approach “to keeping our citizens safe in this area is contradictory and self-defeating”.

Climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution group found that the record-breaking wet weather over the last 18 months – which has caused significant flooding – was made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter by human-caused global heating.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Guardian environment reporter Helena Horton about whether the widespread flooding triggered by Storm Bert might finally push the government to overhaul its approach to flood preparedness. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Middle East | A highly anticipated ceasefire aimed at ending the 14-month-old war between Israel and Hezbollah officially came into effect early on Wednesday morning, hours after Joe Biden hailed the “historic” agreement. The ceasefire officially began at 4am in Lebanon after the heaviest day of raids on Beirut by Israel including a series of strikes in the city centre.

2. Health | Plans to end the deepening crisis in access to NHS dental care are failing, leaving patients unable to get treatment, according to a warning from the National Audit Office. A pledge to provide an extra 1.5m treatments in England this year is in disarray amid falls in both the number of dentists doing NHS work and people receiving help from them.

3. Russia | Russia said it was expelling a British diplomat for alleged spying as tensions between London and Moscow rose after Ukraine starting using British weapons to strike deeper into Russia. The Kremlin has also banned cabinet ministers including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper and Rachel Reeves from entering the country under sanctions announced by Moscow’s foreign affairs ministry.

4. World | Keir Starmer’s national security adviser is to travel to Washington as the UK government tries to persuade Donald Trump not to rip up the Chagos Islands agreement.

5. Business | The owner of Vauxhall has plans to close its van factory at Luton, in a decision that will put 1,100 jobs at risk of cuts or moving location. Stellantis will shift van production to another factory at Ellesmere Port, Cheshire, blaming the UK’s economic conditions and the government’s zero-emission vehicle mandate.

In depth: ‘In time, anger will be directed at the government if nothing is done’

The Met Office has been accused of incompetence and sluggishness in its response to Storm Bert. Alex Barros-Curtis, the Labour MP for Cardiff West, said the agency was “letting down” the public and criticised its decision to issue a yellow warning instead of an amber or red alert.

In response to mounting criticism, the Met Office said it is “committed to learning the lessons from Storm Bert” but said the storm was well forecast because rainfall levels were “within the expected range of that forecast”.

Helena Horton says anger at the Met Office is misplaced. “They aren’t actually supposed to predict floods. They predict rainfall,” she says. The storm’s devastation, she explains, stemmed from fundamental weaknesses in the country’s flood-defence infrastructure. “I think in time the anger will be directed at the government if nothing is done to fix this issue,” she says.

Why is there a lack of funding?

Traditional flood barriers are the country’s primary defence mechanism. However, more than a decade of austerity has affected necessary maintenance – the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs experienced budget cuts of up to 45% – which has led to widespread deterioration of critical infrastructure.

Earlier this year, the National Audit Office reported that 203,000 properties are at greater risk of flooding due to under-investment. This figure is likely to increase as climate breakdown triggers more unpredictable heavy rainfall. “These periods of extreme weather are really hard to predict – we’re seeing floods in areas where we didn’t previously see them,” Helena says, highlighting that many existing flood defences were designed for traditionally flood-prone regions.

The situation has gotten even worse because of project cuts: last year, the Environment Agency removed a quarter of the flood defence projects.

A deluge of sudden rainfall is not the only cause for concern. Floods can also result from continuous wet weather, a pattern the south of England has experienced over the past 18 months. Prolonged rain can overcharge rivers and groundwater, meaning even moderate rainfall can precipitate severe flooding.

What might happen if nothing changes?

The Environment Agency warns that 5.2m properties in England face flood risks. Over the last decade, more than 100,000 properties have been constructed in flood zones – and if planning trends continue for the next half-century, the number of properties in flood plains could almost double.

“We’re going to see people’s homes becoming uninsurable in areas where that wasn’t happening previously,” Helena says. “We’re going to see more lives lost, and businesses facing even more risks at a difficult economic time. It’s going to cause disruption and upset for many people.”

As environmental scientist Aaron Thierry wrote in the Guardian, even the “most resilient communities can be ground down by back-to-back disasters. The psychological strain is immense. How many times can you rebuild, knowing that in a rapidly heating world such floods are becoming more frequent and even more severe?”

What are the fixes?

There are fairly straightforward nature-based solutions that could mitigate some of the damage done by flooding like restoring peatlands. “Good quality peat is like a big sponge,” Helena says, explaining that it can hold a lot of water, supports rare ecosystems and stores huge amounts of carbon. Peatlands have been called the UK’s “national rainforests”. But a lot of this vibrant land has been burnt for farming – a Greenpeace investigation identified 251 peatland burning incidents between October 2021 and April 2022.

Burning peat strips its moisture, so it is no longer able to hold water when it rains. “Restoring our peatlands could be one relatively cheap way [to help fix] the problem,” Helena says.

These nature-based solutions alone are not enough. The most effective way to make the country more flood resilient is increased investment. Yet Labour has not pledged additional funding for flood defences during its term, and is in fact proposing a further 2% cut to Defra’s budget.

Instead, Labour has convened a flood resilience taskforce filled with experts, which it claims will be able to allocate the limited funding effectively. “There’s scepticism about this because, simply, without funding you can’t really fix these problems and often government task forces don’t achieve a huge amount,” Helena says.

The government’s response – creating another bureaucratic layer that lacks the financial resources to achieve much – continues a longstanding pattern. “We have all these different agencies that are there to deal with flooding – the Internal Drainage Boards, the Environment Agency, Natural England, and Defra itself that all are doing their own thing but they don’t really work in tandem,” Helena says. “I think the whole system needs an overhaul so all of these disparate groups come together to create a holistic flood strategy that actually is fit for purpose in the 21st century”.

What else we’ve been reading

• Is it ever OK to burst into song in the cinema? You’d think that’s an obvious no (unless, annoyingly, you are guilty of singing every note of Popular while watching Wicked). But cinemas, theatres and concerts are a “battleground of etiquette”, as Patrick Lenton writes. It’s not been helped by intervention by the Rock encouraging singsong, too. Jason Okundaye, assistant editor, newsletters

• The extreme wellness trends people follow continue to baffle experts. Madeleine Aggeler details the alarming potential health risks from drinking raw milk, including diarrhoea, vomiting, fever, headaches and body aches. Nimo

• Thirty years ago, more than 500 activists faced down 700 police officers in east London during the battle of Claremont Road, to resist the eviction of tenants who were being cleared out to build the M11 link road. Steve Rose writes on how the effort was a watershed moment for environmental activism, laying the foundation for groups such as Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion. Jason

• As Sean “Diddy” Combs battles a growing list of allegations that include rape, racketeering and sex trafficking, his music streams have sharply increased recently. Gloria Oladipo explores why. Nimo

• The new exhibition Fred W McDarrah: Pride and Protest, at the New York Historical, documents the struggle for LGBTQ+ rights in New York City. Veronica Esposito writes about McDarrah’s closeness to key moments in civil rights history. Jason

Sport

Champions League | Manchester City were 3-0 up against Feyenoord, Erling Haaland scoring a double, but Feyenoord scored three goals in the last 15 minutes for a 3-3 draw. Arsenal proved far too good for a Sporting side still reeling from Ruben Amorim’s departure to win 5-1.

MMA | Major retailers in the UK and Ireland are to stop selling alcoholic drinks associated with Conor McGregor. The decision by Tesco and Musgrave came after Nikita Hand, who said McGregor raped her a Dublin hotel in December 2018, won a civil claim for damages against him last week.

Football | Manchester United spent £8.6m on redundancies in the first quarter of the fiscal year, due to Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s drive to reduce the club workforce by 250 from about 1,000, the club’s latest accounts show.

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